Nigeria at a Crossroads: Food, Power, Security, and the High Stakes of Reform Under Tinubu’s Watch

Nigeria’s democratic journey, which began after a turbulent era of military rule and the annulled June 12, 1993 election, entered a new phase with the election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who assumed office on May 29, 2023.
His administration came into power on the promise of delivering economic growth, national security, food security, and sustainable development. Other key areas identified were infrastructure, education, healthcare, industrialisation, and governance reform.
But two years in, Nigerians are facing deepening hardships driven by bold but painful economic reforms — including the removal of the fuel subsidy and exchange rate unification. While these moves are praised by economists as necessary corrections, they have contributed to rising costs of living. Today, one in two Nigerians lives in multidimensional poverty.
In 2023, Nigeria’s population stood at 227.88 million, with 74.5% aged 15–64, a demographic often described as a “youth bulge” that could either be an economic asset or a source of instability, depending on policy success.
As part of ongoing efforts to unpack Nigeria’s most pressing issues, The Conversation Africa has worked with academic experts to explore potential solutions. Here are four critical insights:
Food inflation reached a 25-year high of 40.7% in 2024, while overall inflation peaked at 34.2%, making basic nutrition increasingly unaffordable.
Victoria Tanimonure argues that urgent reforms in agriculture, supply chains, and rural infrastructure are needed if Nigeria is to reverse the food crisis and ensure access to adequate nutrition.
Since 2010, Nigeria has faced persistent terrorist threats. While public confidence in counter-terrorism efforts had waned, momentum shifted in August 2025 with the arrest of two top Ansaru leaders — Mahmud Muhammad Usman and Mahmud al-Nigeri.
Saheed Babajide Owonikoko sees this as a strategic win, but warns that retaliation is likely, and the military must remain prepared.
Most of Nigeria’s elections since 1999 have ended up in court, often amid accusations of manipulation. With the 2027 general elections on the horizon and the electoral commission set for leadership transition, questions about institutional independence loom large.
Onyedikachi Madueke warns that a repeat of 2023’s electoral controversies could damage Nigeria’s democratic credibility and embolden authoritarian tendencies across West Africa.
Nigeria accounts for nearly a third of global maternal deaths, with 1,047 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. In 2024, the government launched a free emergency caesarean section scheme for poor and vulnerable women.
Aduragbemi Banke-Thomas analyses this new initiative, exploring the challenges of scaling access, funding, and quality care that could make or break its success.
Despite decades of reform, Nigeria’s power sector remains unreliable. As of 2023, 43% of Nigerians (85 million people) lacked access to electricity. Though the country has a generation capacity of 12,000–13,500MW, it only delivers around 4,500MW — far below what’s needed for a population of over 200 million.
Taiwo Hassan Odugbemi examines why ambitious reforms on paper are not translating into real improvements for Nigerians who still lack stable, affordable power.
As Nigeria marks another year of democratic rule, the Tinubu administration’s reforms are reshaping the national landscape — but not without cost. The country stands at a critical crossroads, balancing urgency and opportunity, and the outcome will depend not just on policy but on its execution.
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