As the Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco approaches, one question dominates football conversations across Nigeria and the continent: can the Super Eagles go all the way and lift the trophy? Beyond passion, slogans, and social media optimism, the real answer lies in understanding a deeper truth about AFCON this tournament follows patterns. History shows that AFCON winners are rarely the most entertaining teams; they are the most disciplined, mentally resilient, and efficient. When Nigeria is measured against these proven AFCON-winning patterns, a clearer picture of their chances emerges.

AFCON Is a Tournament of Patterns, Not Promises

Over the last two decades, AFCON has developed a unique identity. Unlike the UEFA European Championship or the FIFA World Cup, AFCON is shaped by intense schedules, climatic conditions, unpredictable officiating, passionate crowds, and tactical pragmatism. Teams that succeed are those that adapt quickly and win ugly when necessary. A review of the last ten AFCON champions Egypt, Zambia, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Algeria, Senegal, reveals recurring factors that decide champions. These include defensive solidity, mental toughness, clinical finishing, midfield balance, set-piece efficiency, and experience in tournament football. The central question, therefore, is not whether Nigeria has star players, but whether Nigeria aligns with these winning patterns.

Defensive Solidity: The Foundation of Every AFCON Title

AFCON is not won by scoring four goals every match; it is won by conceding fewer than opponents. Historically, most AFCON champions concede between two and four goals throughout the entire tournament. Senegal in 2021 conceded just two goals, Algeria in 2019 conceded two, and Nigeria in 2013 built its triumph on defensive discipline rather than attacking flair. The current Super Eagles team fits this pattern more than many Nigerians realise. Since AFCON 2023, Nigeria has evolved into a defensively compact unit, comfortable playing a low block and absorbing pressure. Centre-backs such as William Troost-Ekong and Calvin Bassey provide aerial dominance and physicality, while the midfield often drops deep to protect the back line. However, concerns remain. Nigeria’s full-back areas can be exposed against teams with quick overlaps, and defensive concentration must remain consistent throughout matches. AFCON punishes lapses brutally. Still, compared to many African rivals, Nigeria’s defensive shape is solid and increasingly mature a critical box ticked for title contention.

Tournament Mentality: Why Experience Matters More Than Form

One of AFCON’s most unforgiving lessons is that club form means little once the tournament begins. AFCON champions are rarely flawless from the first match; instead, they grow stronger as the competition progresses. They survive early scares, win tense penalty shootouts, and grind out narrow victories. Nigeria possesses a strong tournament mentality built on history and recent experience. The Super Eagles are three-time champions and have reached the latter stages of AFCON more consistently than most African teams. Their run to the final at AFCON 2023, despite criticism of their playing style, was proof of mental resilience and adaptability.

That experience counts. Players who have endured AFCON pressure understand how to manage hostile atmospheres, refereeing inconsistencies, and knockout tension. Nigeria’s squad includes players who have already felt the heartbreak of a final defeat an experience that often sharpens focus rather than weakens belief. In a tournament where psychology can outweigh tactics, Nigeria’s mental strength is a major asset.

The Clinical Striker Factor: A Non-Negotiable Requirement

Every AFCON-winning team has one decisive attacking figure not necessarily the tournament’s top scorer, but a player who delivers when margins are tight. Didier Drogba, Samuel Eto’o, Riyad Mahrez, Sadio Mané, and Mohamed Salah all defined their teams’ attacking identity during title runs.

Nigeria has Victor Osimhen. In Osimhen, the Super Eagles possess arguably the most complete striker in African football today. His movement, aerial ability, pressing, and hunger make him perfectly suited for AFCON football, where chances are limited and physical duels are constant. Osimhen does not need multiple chances to score, and his presence alone disrupts defensive structures. Crucially, Nigeria is not a one-man attack. Ademola Lookman provides secondary goals, pace, and unpredictability, while wide players offer outlets in transition. This aligns perfectly with AFCON history, where champions often score fewer goals but ensure those goals come at decisive moments. In this department, Nigeria does not just meet the pattern they exceed it.

Midfield Balance over Midfield Brilliance

A common misconception among fans is that winning AFCON requires a dominant, creative midfield. History suggests otherwise. AFCON-winning midfields are rarely about artistry; they are about balance, ball recovery, and tactical discipline. Nigeria’s midfield fits this model almost perfectly. Players like Wilfred Ndidi, Frank Onyeka, and Raphael Onyedika excel at breaking play, winning second balls, and protecting the defence. While Nigeria lacks an elite deep-lying playmaker, AFCON history shows that such a player is not essential for success. The concern, however, lies in transitions. Nigeria must avoid being overrun by technically superior teams that dominate possession. The role of Alex Iwobi as a link between midfield and attack is therefore critical. If Nigeria manages transitions efficiently, their midfield is more than adequate for a title push.

Set-Pieces: The Silent Match-Winner

Statistics consistently show that over one-third of AFCON knockout goals come from set-pieces. Corners, free kicks, and penalties often decide matches when open play is tightly contested. Nigeria has the physical profile to dominate this area. Tall defenders, a powerful striker, and strong aerial presence give the Super Eagles a clear advantage. The challenge lies in delivery and defensive organisation. Poor marking on set-pieces has cost Nigeria in past tournaments, and improvement here could be the difference between elimination and silverware. If Nigeria refines set-piece routines both attacking and defensive they gain a crucial edge in a tournament where fine margins decide everything.

Squad Depth and Rotation: Managing the Marathon

AFCON is a physically demanding competition. Champions are teams that manage squad rotation effectively during the group stage while keeping key players fresh for knockout rounds. Nigeria’s depth is strongest in attack, adequate in midfield, and slightly thin in defensive wide areas. Smart rotation will be essential, particularly in the group stage, to prevent fatigue and injuries. If managed well, Nigeria has enough depth to compete through to the final.

Luck, Officiating, and the AFCON Reality
No AFCON title is won without moments of fortune. A favourable VAR decision, a missed opponent penalty, or a deflected goal often shapes destiny. Nigeria has historically suffered from controversial decisions, but strong teams minimise dependence on luck by controlling key moments. Creating chances, defending well, and maintaining discipline reduces exposure to external variables. Nigeria’s current structure supports this approach.
Final Verdict: do the Super Eagles Fit the AFCON-Winning Model?

When measured against proven AFCON-winning patterns, Nigeria scores highly in almost every category: defensive solidity, mental toughness, clinical finishing, tournament experience, and physical suitability. While concerns remain in midfield creativity and full-back consistency, these weaknesses are not disqualifying history shows that AFCON champions often win despite imperfections. Nigeria may not be the outright favourite, especially alongside hosts Morocco and reigning champions Senegal, but they are unquestionably among the strongest contenders. If the Super Eagles avoid early knockout clashes with the tournament’s heaviest weights, maintain fitness, and stay disciplined, the pathway to the title is real and achievable.

AFCON does not reward beauty; it rewards efficiency. And in efficiency, resilience, and decisive quality, Nigeria remains one of Africa’s most dangerous teams.

As Morocco beckons, one thing is clear: ignore the Super Eagles at your own peril.