As Africa prepares for another gripping Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Morocco, Nigerian football fans once again dare to ask the familiar but demanding question: can the Super Eagles win the AFCON title? Beyond patriotism and optimism, a sober assessment of Nigeria’s preparation, squad quality, and tournament dynamics provides a clearer picture of both the Super Eagles’ chances and their most realistic finishing position. AFCON is never a straightforward competition. It is shaped by fine margins, tactical discipline, mental strength, and moments of individual brilliance. Titles are rarely won by reputation alone. For Nigeria, a three-time champion and perennial contender, the path to glory exists but it is neither guaranteed nor simple.

Nigeria’s Current Position in African Football

The Super Eagles enter this AFCON cycle as one of Africa’s strongest teams on paper. With a squad dominated by Europe-based professionals and a core that recently reached an AFCON final, Nigeria cannot be classified as outsiders. At the same time, they are not the outright favourites, especially with strong rivals such as Morocco, Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Algeria also eyeing the trophy. Nigeria’s strength lies in balance. The team combines physicality, pace, and attacking efficiency, while recent tournaments have shown a shift toward pragmatic, result-oriented football. This approach may not always excite fans, but it aligns closely with what AFCON historically rewards.

Attack: Nigeria’s Biggest Weapon

If AFCON titles were decided solely by attacking firepower, Nigeria would rank among the top contenders. The Super Eagles boast one of the most dangerous forward lines on the continent, led by Victor Osimhen widely regarded as Africa’s most complete striker. Osimhen’s impact goes beyond goals. His pressing, aerial dominance, movement, and fighting spirit set the tone for Nigeria’s attack. He thrives in physical battles and requires few chances to score, a crucial quality in AFCON where opportunities are often limited.
Supporting him are players like Ademola Lookman, who has proven to be a big-game performer, and wide attackers capable of stretching defences on the counterattack. Nigeria may not dominate possession in every match, but they are among the most efficient teams when chances arise. This attacking efficiency significantly boosts Nigeria’s chances of progressing deep into the tournament.

Midfield: Functional But Decisive

The midfield remains Nigeria’s most debated department. The Super Eagles do not possess a classic playmaker who dictates tempo with elegance. Instead, they rely on energy, ball-winning, and tactical discipline. Players such as Wilfred Ndidi, Frank Onyeka, and Raphael Onyedika provide defensive cover and physical presence, while Alex Iwobi often acts as the creative link. This setup suits AFCON football, where midfield battles are more about control and transition than artistry. However, Nigeria can struggle against teams that dominate possession and circulate the ball quickly. When overrun in midfield, the Super Eagles are forced deeper, placing pressure on the defence. How well Nigeria manages these midfield battles will heavily influence how far they go in the tournament.
Defence: Improving but Still Tested
AFCON titles are built on defensive solidity, and Nigeria understands this lesson well. Recent tournaments have seen the Super Eagles adopt a compact defensive shape, prioritising organisation over high-risk pressing. Centre-backs such as William Troost-Ekong and Calvin Bassey offer strength and aerial dominance, while the team as a whole defends in numbers. Nigeria is comfortable playing without the ball and protecting narrow leads a vital trait in knockout football. That said, vulnerabilities remain. Full-back areas can be exposed by teams with quick overlaps, and lapses in concentration have cost Nigeria in the past. AFCON punishes defensive errors ruthlessly, and sustained focus will be essential if Nigeria hopes to lift the trophy.

Mentality and Experience: A Major Advantage

One of Nigeria’s strongest assets is tournament experience. The Super Eagles are no strangers to AFCON pressure. Many players in the current squad have featured in multiple editions and understand the unique demands of the competition. Reaching the final in the last AFCON cycle, even in defeat, has provided invaluable lessons. Teams that lose finals often return stronger, armed with hunger and experience. Nigeria’s history of winning major matches under pressure cannot be overlooked. In AFCON, mentality often separates semifinalists from champions. Nigeria’s psychological resilience gives them a genuine chance of going far.

Competition from Rivals
Despite Nigeria’s strengths, the road to the trophy is crowded with formidable opponents. Hosts Morocco combine technical quality with home advantage. Senegal boasts continuity and physical dominance. Ivory Coast and Algeria possess depth, creativity, and tactical flexibility. Nigeria’s chances of winning the AFCON will be influenced by the knockout path. Avoiding early clashes with top favourites could significantly increase the likelihood of reaching the final. Conversely, meeting a heavyweight early could test the Super Eagles’ limits.

Possible Finishing Scenarios
1.    Best-Case Scenario: Champions: Nigeria can win the AFCON if key players remain fit, defensive discipline is maintained, and attacking efficiency remains high. A combination of favourable match-ups, strong mentality, and decisive moments could see the Super Eagles lift the trophy for a fourth time.
2.    Most Realistic Scenario: Semifinals or Finalists: Based on current form and competition strength, reaching the semifinals appears highly achievable. From there, Nigeria would be one strong performance away from another final. This is the most realistic expectation given squad quality and recent history.
3.    Worst-Case Scenario: Quarterfinal Exit: An early knockout clash with a top rival, combined with midfield struggles or defensive lapses, could result in elimination at the quarterfinal stage. While possible, this would represent underachievement rather than expectation.

Final Verdict
The Super Eagles enter AFCON as serious contenders, not favourites. They possess the qualities that AFCON rewards: physicality, defensive organisation, mental toughness, and a clinical striker capable of deciding matches alone. While they are not without weaknesses, history shows that AFCON champions are rarely perfect teams. Realistically, Nigeria should be expected to reach at least the semifinals. From there, momentum, match conditions, and individual brilliance could carry them to the final and possibly to the title.

In a tournament where fine margins define legacies, one truth remains clear: Nigeria has the tools to win AFCON, and any team that underestimates the Super Eagles does so at its own risk.