Political commentator Yusuf Haroun has declared President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the most formidable political figure ahead of the 2027 general elections, downplaying the strength of the recently formed opposition coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

 

Speaking during a televised political analysis, Haroun described the ADC coalition as a “gathering of aggrieved politicians” with no strong grassroots appeal or national structure to challenge Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

 

“When Tinubu was not in power, he was influencing the president, governors, senators. Now the kingmaker is in the king position. So what else? He’s going to win conveniently,” Haroun said.

 

He argued that unlike in 2015 when the then-opposition PDP boasted of five defecting governors, the ADC currently has none, a major weakness in any serious political movement in Nigeria.

 

“In Nigeria, you need grassroots. ADC has no governor, so where is their platform?” he asked rhetorically.

 

Haroun further analyzed what he referred to as the “13 keys” to winning a presidential election in Nigeria—an adaptation of the American political model. Among these keys, he highlighted the power of incumbency, prevailing social stability, and the voting patterns in swing states like Kwara as decisive factors.

 

“Kwara has always swung the tide — from Shagari to Obasanjo, Jonathan, Buhari, and now Tinubu,” he noted. “If you have more than six of the 13 keys, your chances of winning are very high.”

 

Addressing the political future of Labour Party’s Peter Obi, Haroun acknowledged Obi’s strong appeal among Nigeria’s youth and said the former Anambra governor likely commands a loyal base of about six million votes. However, he raised questions over Obi’s next move.

 

“Peter Obi has about six million votes in his pocket. But the question is — what’s his direction? Many people still don’t know,” Haroun said, adding that some PDP leaders are already courting Obi to return to the party as its presidential flag bearer.

 

Despite ongoing talks of a united opposition front, Haroun expressed full confidence in President Tinubu’s ability to secure re-election in 2027. “All signs show that Tinubu remains Nigeria’s most politically rooted figure. The opposition may make noise, but Tinubu will win — and win comfortably,” he concluded.